Very quick updates: Corona: Israel is struggling with the pandemic with some successes, some failures, and much debate. Peace: We have peace agreements now with several Arab countries, most recently with Sudan. This is quite stunning. Internal politics: As divided as ever, after three neck-to-neck general elections, with not-fully functioning unity government, and with many protests calling for the resignation of our PM who face trial for bribery in a couple of months.
And for our main topic:
Four years ago we had a long post demonstrating some notions regarding voting with Nate Silver’s famous site FiveThirtyEight. This time with the flow of corona related statistics I am less addicted to Silver’s site, but I noticed an interesting new feature. You can explore the ways Trump or Biden could win the election: You decide the outcome in some states and see the forecast for the entire elections based on that.
Earlier today Nate Silver’s site gave Biden 88% probability to win and Trump 12% probability to win.
Now, if you force a Trump’s victory in the State of Maine with only two electoral votes, Trump’s chances for winning the entire elections goes up to 40%
Test your intuition: what is the reason for Maine’s huge influence on the elections’ outcomes?
Silver’s prediction earlier today: Biden: 88, Trump: 12
The prediction when you give Maine to Trump. Biden:59, Trump:40.